Microsoft has released a forecast from Nobel laureate economist Daron Acemoglu predicting that artificial intelligence will contribute to about 1.5% GDP growth over the next ten years. According to The Decoder, the outlook suggests a relatively modest economic boost driven by AI advancements.
Acemoglu’s projection also estimates that AI will replace no more than 5% of jobs during this decade-long period, signaling limited disruption to employment levels. This cautious perspective contrasts with more optimistic or alarmist views on AI’s economic and labor market effects.
For Japanese investors and markets, this tempered forecast highlights the importance of measured expectations around AI-driven growth and workforce changes, especially as Japan faces its own demographic and labor challenges.